Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: an Aggregation Theoretic Approach

We incorporate aggregation and index number theory into monetary models of exchange rate determination in a manner that is internally consistent with money market equilibrium. Divisia monetary aggregates and user-cost concepts are used for money supply and opportunity-cost variables in the monetary models. We estimate a flexible price monetary model, a sticky price monetary model, and the Hooper and Morton (1982) model for the US dollar/UK pound exchange rate. We compare forecast results using mean square error, direction of change, and Diebold-Mariano statistics. We find that models with Divisia indexes are better than the random walk assumption in explaining the exchange rate fluctuations. Our results are consistent with the relevant theory and the 'Barnett critique.'Exchange rate, forecasts, vector error correction, aggregation theory, index number theory, Divisia index number

Relationships between High-Resolution Computed Tomography, Lung Function and Bacteriology in Stable Bronchiectasis

To determine the relationship between high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) findings, lung function, and bacteriology in bronchiectasis, we conducted a retrospective study of 49 Korean patients with stable bronchiectasis. To quantify the extent and severity of bronchiectasis, we used a CT scoring system consisting of bronchial dilatation, bronchial wall thickening, the number of bronchiectatic segments, the number of bulla, and the number of emphysema segments. The presence of air-fluid levels and lung consolidation were also evaluated. The results of CT scoring, spirometry and sputum culture were analyzed. Patients with cystic bronchiectasis had higher CT score, more dilated lumen and lower forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), and FEV1/FVC than patients with cylindrical bronchiectasis. Patients with mixed ventilatory impairment had larger number of bronchiectatic segments than patients with obstructive ventilatory impairment. CT score and the number of bronchiectatic segments were significantly associated with FVC and FEV1, while CT score and the number of emphysema segments were significantly associated with FEV1/FVC. Twenty-one patients of 49 patients showed a positive sputum culture including 15 cases of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The CT score was the most important predictor of lung function. The presence of air-fluid levels predicted bacterial colonization

25th annual computational neuroscience meeting: CNS-2016

The same neuron may play different functional roles in the neural circuits to which it belongs. For example, neurons in the Tritonia pedal ganglia may participate in variable phases of the swim motor rhythms [1]. While such neuronal functional variability is likely to play a major role the delivery of the functionality of neural systems, it is difficult to study it in most nervous systems. We work on the pyloric rhythm network of the crustacean stomatogastric ganglion (STG) [2]. Typically network models of the STG treat neurons of the same functional type as a single model neuron (e.g. PD neurons), assuming the same conductance parameters for these neurons and implying their synchronous firing [3, 4]. However, simultaneous recording of PD neurons shows differences between the timings of spikes of these neurons. This may indicate functional variability of these neurons. Here we modelled separately the two PD neurons of the STG in a multi-neuron model of the pyloric network. Our neuron models comply with known correlations between conductance parameters of ionic currents. Our results reproduce the experimental finding of increasing spike time distance between spikes originating from the two model PD neurons during their synchronised burst phase. The PD neuron with the larger calcium conductance generates its spikes before the other PD neuron. Larger potassium conductance values in the follower neuron imply longer delays between spikes, see Fig. 17.Neuromodulators change the conductance parameters of neurons and maintain the ratios of these parameters [5]. Our results show that such changes may shift the individual contribution of two PD neurons to the PD-phase of the pyloric rhythm altering their functionality within this rhythm. Our work paves the way towards an accessible experimental and computational framework for the analysis of the mechanisms and impact of functional variability of neurons within the neural circuits to which they belong

Modelling human choices: MADeM and decision‑making

Research supported by FAPESP 2015/50122-0 and DFG-GRTK 1740/2. RP and AR are also part of the Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics FAPESP grant (2013/07699-0). RP is supported by a FAPESP scholarship (2013/25667-8). ACR is partially supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: an Aggregation Theoretic Approach

We incorporate aggregation and index number theory into monetary models of exchange rate determination in a manner that is internally consistent with money market equilibrium. Divisia monetary aggregates and user-cost concepts are used for money supply and opportunity-cost variables in the monetary models. We estimate a flexible price monetary model, a sticky price monetary model, and the Hooper and Morton (1982) model for the US dollar/UK pound exchange rate. We compare forecast results using mean square error, direction of change, and Diebold-Mariano statistics. We find that models with Divisia indexes are better than the random walk assumption in explaining the exchange rate fluctuations. Our results are consistent with the relevant theory and the 'Barnett critique.'Exchange rate, forecasts, vector error correction, aggregation theory, index number theory, Divisia index number

Fungal communities in a Korean red pine stand, Gwangneung Forest, Korea

For the seasonal changes of fungi (Ascomycota and Basidiomycota) diversity, we performed a biweekly survey of macrofungi on defined plot in a Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora) stand (Gwangneung Forest, Pochen-si, Korea) from April 2014 to December 2014. The plot was surveyed 18 times. We also investigated the diversity of the soil fungi community during four seasons using pyrosequencing method. The collected macrofungi (25 specimens) were classified into one phylum, one class, four orders, 10 families, 13 genera, and 17 species; the soil fungal communities were classified into two phyla, 15 classes, 43 orders, 91 families, and 124 genera (49,937 sequence reads), designated as 124 genus-level operational taxonomic units. Using macrofungal collection data, environmental factor data (n = 10), and pyrosequencing data, we evaluated changes in fungal diversity with seasons and soil layers. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination revealed distinct clusters of genus-level operational taxonomic units assemblage with season. Two environmental factors (exchangeable K and C/N ratio) were found to be significantly associated with soil fungi communities in the Korean red pine stand. This study will lead to a better understanding of relationships between Korean red pine stand stands and soil fungal communities. Keywords: diversity, environmental factors, macrofungi, pyrosequencing, soil layer

Haploidentical versus Double-Cord Blood Stem Cells as a Second Transplantation for Relapsed Acute Myeloid Leukemia

There are limited data on second stem cell transplantation (SCT2) outcomes with alternative donors for relapsed AML after the first stem cell transplantation (SCT1). We analyzed the outcomes of 52 adult AML patients who received SCT2 from haploidentical donors (HIT, N = 32) and double-cord blood (dCBT, N = 20) between 2008 and 2021. The HIT group received T-cell-replete peripheral blood stem cells after reduced-toxicity conditioning with anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG), while the dCBT group received myeloablative conditioning. For a median follow-up of 64.9 months, the HIT group, compared to the dCBT group, had earlier engraftment, superior 2-year overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and non-relapse mortality (NRM) with similar relapse. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that HIT was significantly associated with better OS, DFS, and lower NRM than dCBT. Both longer remission duration after SCT1 and complete remission at SCT2 were significantly associated with a lower relapse rate. In addition, bone marrow WT1 measurable residual disease (MRD) positivity was significantly associated with inferior OS and higher relapse. This study suggests that T-cell-replete HIT with ATG-based GVHD prophylaxis may be preferred over dCBT as SCT2 for relapsed AML and that WT1-MRD negativity may be warranted for better SCT2 outcomes

The salvage role of allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation in relapsed/refractory diffuse large B cell lymphoma

Abstract To clarify the role of allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) in the chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy era, we analyzed the clinical characteristics and outcomes of 52 patients treated with allo-HSCT with relapsed/refractory diffuse large B cell lymphoma. Most enrolled patients had previously undergone intensive treatments, the median number of chemotherapy lines was 4, and the median time from diagnosis to allo-HSCT was 27.1 months. Patients were divided into remission-achieved (n = 30) and active-disease (n = 22) groups before allo-HSCT. Over a median follow-up period of 38.3 months, overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) rates were 38.4% and 30.6%, respectively. The cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) and the non-relapsed mortality (NRM) were 36.7% and 32.7%, respectively. OS, EFS, and graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival (GRFS) outcomes were significantly superior in the remission-achieved group with lower CIR. In a multivariate analysis, a shorter interval from diagnosis to allo-HSCT reflected relatively rapid disease progression and showed significantly poor OS and EFS with higher CIR. Patients with active disease had significantly lower EFS, GRFS, and higher CIR. Previous autologous stem-cell transplantation was associated with better GRFS. Allo-HSCT is an established modality with a prominent group of cured patients and still has a role in the CAR T-cell era, particularly given its acceptable clinical outcomes in young patients with chemo-susceptible disease

Depth of Response to Intensive Chemotherapy Has Significant Prognostic Value among Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation with Intermediate or Adverse Risk at Diagnosis Compared to At-Risk Group According to European Leukemia Net 2017 Risk Stratification

We evaluated the prognostic efficiency of the European Leukemia Net (ELN) 2017 criteria on the post-transplant outcomes of 174 patients with intermediate (INT; n = 108, 62%) or adverse (ADV) risk (n = 66, 38%) of acute myeloid leukemia; these patients had received the first allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) at remission. After a median follow-up period of 18 months, the 2 year OS, RFS, and CIR after HSCT were estimated to be 58.6% vs. 64.4% (p = 0.299), 50.5% vs. 53.7% (p = 0.533), and 26.9% vs. 36.9% (p = 0.060) in the INT and ADV risk groups, respectively. Compared to the ELN 2017 stratification, pre-HSCT WT1 levels (cutoff: 250 copies/104 ABL) more effectively segregated the post-HSCT outcomes of INT risk patients compared to ADV risk patients regarding their 2 year OS (64.2% vs. 51.5%, p = 0.099), RFS (59.4% vs. 32.4%, p = 0.003), and CIR (18.9% vs. 60.0% p WT1 levels were more prominent in INT risk patients than in ADV risk patients. Notably, FLT3-ITD had the greatest impact on post-HSCT outcomes among all the ELN 2017 criteria components; patients in the FLT3-ITD mutant subgroups exhibited the worst outcomes regardless of their allelic ratios or NPM1 status compared to the pre-HSCT WT1 level of other INT and ADV risk patients

Clinical Features, Gene Alterations, and Outcomes in Prefibrotic and Overt Primary and Secondary Myelofibrotic Patients

The Philadelphia-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are divided in three major groups: polycythemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythemia (ET), and primary myelofibrosis (PMF). The 2016 WHO classification incorporates also prefibrotic PMF (pre-PMF) and overt PMF. This study aimed to discriminate the clinical features, genetic alterations, and outcomes in patients with prefibrotic, overt PMF, and secondary MF (SMF). This study included 229 patients with diagnosed myelofibrosis (MF). Among 229 patients, 67 (29%), 122 (53%), and 40 (18%) were confirmed as SMF, overt PMF, and pre-PMF, respectively. The JAK2 V617F mutation was differentially distributed in SMF and PMF, contradictory to CALR and MPL mutations. Regarding nondriver mutations, the occurrence of ASXL1 mutations differed between PMF and SMF or pre-PMF. The three-year overall survival was 91.5%, 85.3%, and 94.8% in SMF, overt PMF, and pre-PMF groups. Various scoring systems could discriminate the overall survival in PMF but not in SMF and pre-PMF. Still, clinical features including anemia and thrombocytopenia were poor prognostic factors throughout the myelofibrosis, whereas mutations contributed differently. Molecular grouping by wild-type SF3B1 and SRSF2/RUNX1/U2AF1/ASXL1/TP53 mutations showed inferior progression-free survival (PFS) in PMF, SMF, and pre-PMF. We determined the clinical and genetic features related to poor prognosis in myelofibrosis